{"id":20119,"date":"2023-02-07T06:57:37","date_gmt":"2023-02-07T06:57:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/?p=20119"},"modified":"2023-02-07T07:13:27","modified_gmt":"2023-02-07T07:13:27","slug":"prumysl-drzel-nad-vodou-opet-automotive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/index.php\/2023\/02\/07\/prumysl-drzel-nad-vodou-opet-automotive\/","title":{"rendered":"Automotive st\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00ed ekonomiku nad vodou"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pr\u016fmysl v z\u00e1v\u011bru roku dok\u00e1zal r\u016fst, kdy\u017e meziro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159idal 1,3 %, p\u0159i o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed o kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00ed vlivy pak vyk\u00e1zal zlep\u0161en\u00ed o rovn\u00e9 4 %.\u00a0Hlavn\u00ed roli hr\u00e1l podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed automobilov\u00fd sektor, t\u011b\u017e\u00edc\u00ed z n\u00edzk\u00e9 srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladny.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pozitivn\u00ed efekt byl o n\u011bco siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e jsme p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali, co\u017e tvo\u0159\u00ed hlavn\u00ed rozd\u00edl proti na\u0161emu odhadu. \u00a0Do kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u011b o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9ho v\u00fdsledku p\u0159idal automotive 4,6 procentn\u00edho bodu.<\/p>\n

P\u0159i jeho ode\u010dten\u00ed tak v\u00fdsledek \u010desk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu napl\u0148uje stagna\u010dn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, sp\u00ed\u0161e ve sm\u011bru m\u00edrn\u00e9ho poklesu, tak jak v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch nazna\u010dovaly n\u011bkter\u00e9 p\u0159edstihov\u00e9 ukazatele.\u00a0Mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b v prosinci pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 produkce rostla o 0,2 %.<\/b><\/p>\n

V\u00fdroba v automobilov\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu<\/b>\u00a0rostla podle \u00fadaj\u016f \u010cesk\u00e9ho statistick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu meziro\u010dn\u011b o v\u00edce jak 30 %, zat\u00edmco n\u00e1\u0161 odhad vych\u00e1zel z r\u016fstu proti lo\u0148sk\u00e9mu roku zhruba o 20 %.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b automobilov\u00fd sektor ale p\u0159edstavuje hlavn\u00ed otazn\u00edk do dal\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, kdy krom\u011b vyprch\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pozitivn\u00edho efektu n\u00edzk\u00e9 srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladny, doch\u00e1z\u00ed v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce k op\u011btovn\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm s dod\u00e1vkami n\u011bkter\u00fdch materi\u00e1l\u016f.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed tuzemsk\u00fd v\u00fdrobce \u0160koda Auto ji\u017e omezuje v\u00fdrobu kv\u016fli nedostatku \u010dip\u016f, cel\u00fd \u00fanor pak nebude vyr\u00e1b\u011bt v Kol\u00edn\u011b s\u00eddl\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdrobna spole\u010dnosti Toyota.<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b automotive vzrostla v prosinci produkce mj. i v od\u011bvn\u00edm a ko\u017eed\u011bln\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu, vzhledem k velikosti v\u016f\u010di celkov\u00e9 \u010desk\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 produkci byl ale samotn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek do v\u00fdsledku relativn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fd.\u00a0Neda\u0159\u00ed se naopak i nad\u00e1le vysoce energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fdm odv\u011btv\u00edm<\/b>, jako je chemick\u00e1 v\u00fdroba (-18 % r\/r) nebo v\u00fdroba z\u00e1kladn\u00edch kov\u016f, hutnictv\u00ed a sl\u00e9v\u00e1renstv\u00ed (-16 % r\/r).<\/p>\n

Z pohledu nov\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek\u00a0<\/b>vzrostla hodnota meziro\u010dn\u011b o 10,1 %, kdy o n\u011bco v\u00edce se na v\u00fdsledku pozitivn\u011b pod\u00edlely dom\u00e1c\u00ed zak\u00e1zky (+11,6 %) ne\u017e zahrani\u010dn\u00ed (+9,3 %). Krom\u011b vysok\u00e9 inflace stoj\u00ed za v\u00fdsledkem tak\u00e9 velmi n\u00edzk\u00e1 srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladna v automotive.<\/p>\n

K stabilizaci do\u0161lo u mzdov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje.<\/b>\u00a0Po listopadov\u00e9m p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9m meziro\u010dn\u00edm r\u016fstu o 13 % (v d\u016fsledku vypl\u00e1cen\u00ed bonus\u016f), do\u0161lo v prosinci k r\/r r\u016fstu hrub\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed mzdy v pr\u016fmyslu o 7,8 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n\n
Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
P\u0159edchoz\u00ed<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
RB<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Trh<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
v % r\/r<\/b><\/td>\n\n
1,3<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
0,5<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
-1,6<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
3,3<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zdroj: Raiffeisenbank, Bloomberg,\u00a0neo\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e1 data<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Za cel\u00fd rok 2022 <\/b>rostla pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 produkce o 1,7 %, co\u017e zhruba odpov\u00edd\u00e1 na\u0161emu celoro\u010dn\u00edmu odhadu (+2,1 %).\u00a0Pro leto\u0161n\u00ed rok o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me v\u00fdsledek v okol\u00ed nuly<\/b>, kdy rizika jdou ob\u011bma sm\u011bry. Lep\u0161\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v euroz\u00f3n\u011b se m\u016f\u017ee odr\u00e1\u017eet v siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vce po \u010desk\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b, co\u017e by mohlo tuzemsk\u00e9mu pr\u016fmyslu pomoct k p\u0159ehoupnut\u00ed se do \u010dern\u00fdch \u010d\u00edsel. Na druhou stranu op\u011btovn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my s dod\u00e1vkami n\u011bkter\u00fdch materi\u00e1l\u016f v automobilov\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu, kter\u00fd hraje v r\u00e1mci \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky st\u011b\u017eejn\u00ed roli, p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed riziko pro celoro\u010dn\u00ed pokles produkce. Z\u00e1le\u017eet tak bude zejm\u00e9na na tom, jak rychle se probl\u00e9my v dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch poda\u0159\u00ed eliminovat.<\/p>\n

Autor: Vratislav Z\u00e1mi\u0161, analytik RB<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pr\u016fmysl v z\u00e1v\u011bru roku dok\u00e1zal r\u016fst, kdy\u017e meziro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159idal 1,3 %, p\u0159i o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed o kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00ed vlivy pak vyk\u00e1zal zlep\u0161en\u00ed o rovn\u00e9 4 %.\u00a0Hlavn\u00ed roli hr\u00e1l […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1524,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza","category-statistika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20119"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20119\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1524"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.automakersnews.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}